you're still only about 56% to win, and if we assume on average you get 60% of the pot when you win, this would create the following EV calculation.Everything through $15/30 seems to stay full round the clock. And even if you had AA and it was random opponent cards, community cards, etc. So unfortunately, I don't think it's totally random. Then they sell the rest of the 630 possible hole card combinations to players without replacement unless more than 630 players play, in which they will reset the hole card combinations to be sold. The lottery says they choose the opponents' cards, the community cards, and 3 burn cards first. They pick the community cards and opponents' hands first, and looking at the results, these initial selections are unlikely to be random because your winning percentage is often below 10% and 5% when it should be closer to 20% on average. Oh, then that is a little different, but there is somewhat of a problem with this since I have looked at game results. However, I do agree with you that (at a 50% payback rate) this is as much of a suckers bet than any other lottery game. So you are able to increase the amount you are wagering based on whether or not you like your cards. Thanks for the response, the one time I played this game you bought your tickets before the draw $2 per hand, then you had the option of wagering more on hands you liked before the draw took place, up to 5 raises of $2, then you had the draw. Long story short, it's a rare day when you can beat the lottery. In other words, the house edge is 40.13%. But once you calculate all the probabilities and prizes, a "Poker Lotto" ticket of $2 returns $1.1975 to the player. And of course there are many other ways to win in the rules link below, and many, many more ways to lose. If the random ticket you purchase is a dealt Royal (1 in 649,740), you win a nice $5k. If you exactly match the drawn hand (1 in 2,598,960) you win $100k for a $2 bet. The BC lottery also has a deterministic poker lottery game called "Poker Lotto" where you receive five cards at random, and five cards are chosen every night. To give the "house" an edge of 43.2% Obviously the bad beat jackpot of the game will return some of the edge as well, but it will be virtually impossible to overcome a 43.2% edge. With that sample I got a return of $1.136 per $2 played. Then ran the hands in pokerstove to find the expected winning probabilities for players to find the return of each game. I took a sample of the first 25 games that had at least one player winner on March 20th. They call it a "raise", but you have to make this "raise" before you receive your cards, so raising is worthless. This means the lottery takes a huge cut out of the pot before distributing the prizes.
I was always under the impression that this was a parimutuel game.
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